Star Wars #1

This is the place to discuss the episodes of the Comic Book Page podcast, the Comic Book Page website or pretty much anything else of interest to the Comic Book Page community...

Moderator: JohnMayo

SpideySavestheDay
Reviewer
Posts: 204
Joined: Sun Oct 07, 2012 4:07 pm
Location: Phoenix, AZ

Star Wars #1

Post by SpideySavestheDay »

Here's a game we could all play - guess the number of copies Star Wars #1 will sell through Diamond. Kind of like Price-is-Right's Showcase Showdown but without any prizes.

I ran across this article on Bleeding Cool, http://www.bleedingcool.com/2014/11/14/ ... a-million/, and Marvel/Lucasarts/Disney is pulling every marketing shenanigan to make the number sold ridiculously high. The plan includes variants, tying orders to Original Sin #8, and possibly Loot Crate.

Rich Johnston is going with 500K. I'll aim a little lower with 400K. Remember don't under bid.
User avatar
JohnMayo
Host/Owner
Posts: 3282
Joined: Mon Mar 12, 2007 3:12 pm
Location: Texas
Contact:

Re: Star Wars #1

Post by JohnMayo »

In addition to the regular Star Wars #1, there will be the following incentive covers and the rules for getting each of them:
  • CAMPBELL CONNECTING VAR A: You may order 1 variant for every 50 regular you purchase.
  • CASSADAY TEASER VAR: You may order 1 variant for every 25 regular you purchase.
  • MCLEOD VAR: You may order 1 variant for every 25 regular you purchase.
  • MOVIE VAR: You may order 1 variant for every 15 regular you purchase.
  • QUESADA VAR: You may order 1 variant for every 100 regular you purchase.
  • QUESADA SKETCH VAR: You may order 1 variant for every 500 regular you purchase.
  • ROSS VAR: You may order 1 variant for every 50 regular you purchase.
  • ROSS SKETCH VAR: You may order 1 variant for every 200 regular you purchase.
  • PICHELLI VAR: You may order 1 variant for every 20 regular you purchase.
  • YOUNG VAR: Exceed 200% of orders for Original Sin #8 (JUN140609) with orders for Star Wars #1 reg cvr, and this variant is order all you want.
  • CHRISTOPHER HUMOROUS PARTY VAR: Exceed 200% of orders for Original Sin #8 (JUN140609) with orders for Star Wars #1 reg cvr, and this variant is order all you want. Must opt in to party
  • ACTION FIGURE VAR: Exceed 200% of orders for Original Sin #8 (JUN140609) with orders for Star Wars #1 reg cvr, and this variant is order all you want.
  • BLANK VAR: Exceed 200% of orders for Original Sin #8 (JUN140609) with orders for Star Wars #1 reg cvr, and this variant is order all you want.
Factors that will influence sales:
  • The property is a very strong property
  • Strong creative team
  • Up coming movie
  • Heavy promotional push from publisher
  • Lot of "buzz" around the title
  • Possible LootCreate deal
Frankly, with that many variables at play, it will certainly sell well but how well is hard to guess. Selling under 250,000 seems unlikely given all of that. Exceeding 500,000 is possible.

To me the bigger question isn't how the first issue will sell but how the second issue will sell. While I hope to be wrong on this, I'm expecting the second issue to be under 150,000, probably under 100,000. By #4, I expect the title to be under 75,000. Again, hopefully I'm wrong about this and it sells better that I expect.
Comic Book Page: Website || Podcast || RSS || Episodes Archive
fudd71
Master Reviewer
Posts: 563
Joined: Thu Sep 30, 2010 4:46 pm
Location: Los Angeles

Re: Star Wars #1

Post by fudd71 »

If the loot crate deal gets made and all those go through Diamond, plus all these variant covers and everything else. I think the goal is a million to be the first there in quite a long time and I think they will do it. Without the loot crate deal I still think over 600K.
User avatar
JohnMayo
Host/Owner
Posts: 3282
Joined: Mon Mar 12, 2007 3:12 pm
Location: Texas
Contact:

Re: Star Wars #1

Post by JohnMayo »

I can see a million being the goal but I think it is a really hard goal to hit.
Comic Book Page: Website || Podcast || RSS || Episodes Archive
drew
Master Reviewer
Posts: 1666
Joined: Tue Apr 23, 2013 5:56 pm
Contact:

Re: Star Wars #1

Post by drew »

482,351...give or take
Comics For Fun and Profit(also available on iTunes and Stitcher)
SpideySavestheDay
Reviewer
Posts: 204
Joined: Sun Oct 07, 2012 4:07 pm
Location: Phoenix, AZ

Re: Star Wars #1

Post by SpideySavestheDay »

Just saw the Star Wars trailer and I'm changing my sales estimate to 5,000,000.



Ok, seriously - 4,000,000.



I might be a little excited.
drew
Master Reviewer
Posts: 1666
Joined: Tue Apr 23, 2013 5:56 pm
Contact:

Re: Star Wars #1

Post by drew »

i may have went a bit too conservative

ComicBook.com has posted an unconfirmed report that Marvel Comics' upcoming "Star Wars" #1 by Jason Aaron and John Cassaday is set to sell more than one million copies in retailer orders, which, if accurate, would make it the top-selling comic book of the past 20 years. "Star Wars" series editor Jordan D. White shared the report on Twitter, stating, "Holy cow, you guys -- Star Wars. This is amazing."

CBR reached out to Marvel, who declined to comment.

http://www.comicbookresources.com/?page ... e&id=57561
Comics For Fun and Profit(also available on iTunes and Stitcher)
User avatar
JohnMayo
Host/Owner
Posts: 3282
Joined: Mon Mar 12, 2007 3:12 pm
Location: Texas
Contact:

Re: Star Wars #1

Post by JohnMayo »

A million units would be beyond impressive. I'd go so far as to say stunning, particularly for a $4.99 cover price.

For comparison, the highest monthly sales for anything on my database is 705,277 units for Fantastic Four #60 which has a 9 cent cover price in August 2002, followed by 654,128 units for Batman: The 10 Cent Adventure which has a ten cent cover price in January 2002. The highest selling comic during a single month at a regular cover price was Amazing Spider-Man #1 with 532,586 units at $5.99 back in April 2014.

If Star Wars sells over a million units, the drop on the second issue could be as high as 95% figuring it should be able to do 50,000 units on a regular basis. If the drop is anywhere close to that (75% or over), it kind of proves first issue sales are useless as any sort of metric of ongoing sales strength. On the flip side, it also would prove how effective of a cash grab a first issue can be.
Comic Book Page: Website || Podcast || RSS || Episodes Archive
drew
Master Reviewer
Posts: 1666
Joined: Tue Apr 23, 2013 5:56 pm
Contact:

Re: Star Wars #1

Post by drew »

if those kind of numbers (1 million) are accurate - this could be one of those rare titles that bring in new readers...
Comics For Fun and Profit(also available on iTunes and Stitcher)
User avatar
JohnMayo
Host/Owner
Posts: 3282
Joined: Mon Mar 12, 2007 3:12 pm
Location: Texas
Contact:

Re: Star Wars #1

Post by JohnMayo »

Or a lot of speculators at the very least.
Comic Book Page: Website || Podcast || RSS || Episodes Archive
fudd71
Master Reviewer
Posts: 563
Joined: Thu Sep 30, 2010 4:46 pm
Location: Los Angeles

Re: Star Wars #1

Post by fudd71 »

I made one bold prediction, that at least seems like it may happen, so I'll make another. By issue #6 the series will be bellow 75K.
User avatar
JohnMayo
Host/Owner
Posts: 3282
Joined: Mon Mar 12, 2007 3:12 pm
Location: Texas
Contact:

Re: Star Wars #1

Post by JohnMayo »

I don't think it will take 6 issues to fall below 75K. I think it could do it by #3.
Comic Book Page: Website || Podcast || RSS || Episodes Archive
drew
Master Reviewer
Posts: 1666
Joined: Tue Apr 23, 2013 5:56 pm
Contact:

Re: Star Wars #1

Post by drew »

fudd71 wrote:I made one bold prediction, that at least seems like it may happen, so I'll make another. By issue #6 the series will be bellow 75K.
not too shabby, that would make it a top ten book which is still pretty good these day
Comics For Fun and Profit(also available on iTunes and Stitcher)
User avatar
JohnMayo
Host/Owner
Posts: 3282
Joined: Mon Mar 12, 2007 3:12 pm
Location: Texas
Contact:

Re: Star Wars #1

Post by JohnMayo »

It has been confirmed that STar Wars #1 will exceed one millsion copies in the direct market.

Personally, I find sales of that magnitude to be astounding. It is higher sales than any of the Dark Horse Star Wars titles except Star Wars: Legacy reached during the final order era (starting in March 2003).

Note that I said *title* and not *issue*. The entire run of the Star Wars: Legacy title sold 1,444,062 across all of the issues.

The top selling (within a single month) Dark Horse Star Wars issue during the final order era was Star Wars [Lucas Draft] #1 with 78,467 units. The next highest selling issue was Star Wars [Lucas Draft] #2 with 56,165 units and then Star Wars [Lucas Draft] #3 with 50,346 units. AFter that everything is under 48,000 units.

The size of the second issue drop is going to be staggering.
Comic Book Page: Website || Podcast || RSS || Episodes Archive
SpideySavestheDay
Reviewer
Posts: 204
Joined: Sun Oct 07, 2012 4:07 pm
Location: Phoenix, AZ

Re: Star Wars #1

Post by SpideySavestheDay »

This is the kind of comic that needs to be a gateway to non or casual readers to spend more time and money with the hobby. Information I would like to see is - who is selling the issues besides comic shops? Where can non comic readers stumble upon these issues? If digital estimates are around 10-20% of print then we are looking at a distribution level that is well over a million and a half.

Exciting news for the industry. Disney is marketing and organizing the star wars franchise well with synergistics between the release of the movie trailer near the order cutoff for Diamond.

Like the New 52, this could bring in new or lapsed readers, especially Star Wars fans, young and old, to a wider market of story telling that appeals to that population.
Post Reply